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Tuesday, 2 June 03:08 (GMT -05:00)



Foreign exchange market

Dollar Becomes Safe-Haven Asset Amid COVID-19 Pandemic


Even during the time when the entire global economy is paralyzed by the coronavirus pandemic, international financial markets keep functioning. Right before the start of the last trading week of March, NordFX came up with another set of consensus forecasts for forex and cryptocurrencies. Several expert opinions were taken into account during the process.
 
- EUR/USD. Amid the existing crisis, it's the U.S. Dollar that has become the key safe-haven asset for international investors. Even though its status and further strengthening is questionable, since the entire global financial system has been under pressure by the coronavirus and some other factors, apparently the future state of affairs will depend mainly in the global success in fighting COVID-19.
 
At the start of the trading week, all of the trending indicators and 85% of the oscillators on H4 and D1 are painted red. The remaining 15% are indicating an oversold market. The predictions are mixed and cannot make room for a clear picture this time. When switching to bigger-scale timeframes, the bulls are currently dominating among those participating in the consensus forecast.
 
To be more specific, around 60% of the experts think anticipate a EUR/USD rally within the next 4 weeks, with 75% of the experts leaning towards the same scenario within the next 12 weeks or so. They expect the pair to go back to the 1.1000-1.1240 range, and the closest level of resistance is 1.0800. The closest level of support is located at 1.0600. The next one is 100 points below. The key target for the bears is 1.0350. Upon breaking below that one, we may well see the common European currency reaching parity with the U.S. Dollar.
 
- GBP/USD. The British Pound has been moving along Pivot Point 1.1625 since last Wednesday, inside the 1.1450-1.1800 range. The width of 350 points may seem really big at first, but the volatility of some other majors is currently around 500-600 points.
 
65% of the experts don't expect anything special this week. They hope that the currency pair will continue moving within the same price range throughout the week. At the same time, 70-80% of the experts anticipate a move back to the 1.2725-1.3025 range within the next 2 months. Resistance levels – 1.1800, 1.1875, 1.2125, 1.2325,1.2625. Support levels -  1.1425, 1.1300, 1.1200. At the same time. we should keep in mind that the pound has dropped that low for the fist time in 230 years, which is why those levels are rather conventional.
 
- USD/JPY. The currency pair is now dependen mostly on the dollars on top of the COVID-19 pandemic. This week, 55% of the experts are predicting a trend reversal, with a move down to the 108.50-110.00 range. The percentage of bearish predictions grows up to 65% when moving to the Monthly timeframe. The next target area is between 107.00 and 107.70.
 
The bulls count on moving up to 112.25, with a possible move up by another 100 points, and maybe even 114.55, which is the high of 2018.
 
- Cryptocurrencies. In the cryptocurrency market, the index of greed and fear is at 9 points out of 100 possible. On the one hand, this indicates severe fear among international investors. On the other hand, when the indicator stays low at the same level for a relatively long time, this may signify that a rally is coming soon. Given the fact that international markets are jam-packed with dollar liquidity, and the Fed's interest rates are close to zero, the experts say that growth is a very likely scenario.
 

 

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