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Foreign exchange market

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast by NordFX. Mid-August 2019

Roman Boutko, an analyst for NordFX, has come up with another consensus forecast for the forex and cryptocurrency markets for the forthcoming trading week starting on August 12, 2019.
 
- EUR/USD. The trending indicators and oscillators on H4 are looking north. As for D1, around a half of the indicators are painted red while 15% of the oscillators are signaling an overbought market. The bearish scenario is also backed by 60% of the experts participating in the consensus forecast. In particular, they expect the exchange rate to rebound form the 1.1200 resistance level to move all the way down to 1.1025.
 
Around 40% of the analysts anticipate a rally up to the 1.1275-1.1345 area. They also indicate the increasing risk of another economic recession in the USA. At the same time The Wall Street Journal experts also report that the American economy will enter another recession with a probability of 33,6%, whic is the highest risk since 2011.
 
- GBP/USD. As for the British Pound, the experts do not expect any serious changes in the market, which is why they are neutral on GBP/USD. At the same time all of the trending indicators and most of the oscillators operating on H4 and D1 have no turned red. 25% of the oscillators are signalling an oversold market.
 

График EURUSD

With that being said, the likelihood of the price reversing the trend is now very high. At least, a new correction period is likely. The closest levels of support are currently located at the lows of 2017 (1.1985) and October 2016 (1.1945). The key levels of resistance are located at 1.2210, 1.2415, and 1.2525. 
 
- USD/JPY. The global market is clearly seeing an increasing interest in safe-haven assets, with the Japanese Yen being one of them. According to 35% of the experts, the Japanese currency is likely to keep on gaining strength against the U.S. Dollar, which means a further downtrend for the currency pair. The current target is said to be the low set on January 3, 2019. It's located ate 105.00. The next one is 104.60. This scenario is currently backed by 85% of the oscillators and all fo the trending indicators on H4 and D1.
 
30% of the experts cannot make up their mind on the near-term prospects of the currency pair. The remaining 35% anticipate a trend reversal, with a move up to 107.00-108.00. This is backed by 15% of the oscillators indicating and oversold market.
 
-  Cryptocurrencies. Some experts are convinced that Bitcoin is another safe-haven asset, which is why the raising trade tensions between Washington and Beijing may push the exchange rate higher, maybe even up to 20K dollars per coin. It's interesting to note that over the last 3 months, Bitcoin gained over 93%. The next targets are 12K and 14K dollars per coin.

 

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