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Thursday, 22 October 13:22 (GMT -05:00)



Stock and commodities markets

Is Economic Decline In USA Inevitable?


The NY Fed model points out to the fact that the probability of another recession in the American economy has increased all the way up to 33%. Over the last 50 years, such signals have almost always bee followed by recessions.
 
As of early July, the likelihood of another economic recession in the United States was very close to 33%. By the way, this is the highest probability over the last 12 years. The more-than-60-year record indicates 8 such cases, and only one of them ended up with no recession.
 
The probability of an economic recession in the United States is implied by the yield spread between T-bond with different lifetime. 
 
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In the remaining 7 out of 8 cases, reaching the 30% threshold would mean an inevitable economic recession. So, what's the chance that this time the U.S. economy  is not going to hit another recession? What's the chance that even if there's an economic recession it is not going to last for 24 months or more, like in 1968?
 
The NY Fed model has never reached 50% over the last 36 years! And it's interesting to note that over that period, the American economy has seen 3 officially recorded economic declines (NBERs were announced).
 
The NY Fed model is based on the only, tough almost unfailable, indicator, which is basically an inverted yield curve indicating situations when the 3-month T-bond yield exceeds the 10-year T-bond yield. This is is exactly what we have been seeing since May, 23rd. The inverted yield curve came into existence in 2007, following a big economic decline, which later triggered a global financial crisis.
 
In the meantime, the American economy has recenty set a new record. The thing is that the continuous GDP growth has been going on since Q3 2019, which is 10 years in a row. This is the longest series since World War II, or maybe even in the entire history of the USA. Still, the economc growth in the USA has been slowing down for a couple of months.

 

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European ETFs - Decent Alternative to American ETFs

The mentioned PRIIP rules are forcing the financial service providers and brokers to publish a specific set of info documents including the so-called KID with the key info on certain investment and insurance products. Since the funds coming from outside of Europe do not conform to these requirements, they cannot be offered to EU residents as investment products.
Publication date: 19 September 01:48 AM

Warren Buffett Keeps Loading Up On Bank of America's Stock

Berkshire Hathaway keeps loading up on Bank of America's stock. This time, during the period of July 31st - August 4th, they purchased over 13,6 million shares, which cost 337 million dollars. The average prices was 24,81 dollars per share. With that being said, Berkshire Hathaway now owns 1,03 billion shares of the stock, which is 26,15 billion dollars in dollar terms. As for the Federal Reserve, they agreed to increase the fund's share to 24,9%.

Publication date: 12 August 01:39 AM

WTI Price Drops After US Oil Inventories Report

Today, another crude oil inventories report has been released by the USA:

Publication date: 03 June 12:21 PM

Is Gold Worth Investing Amid Crisis?

Securing assets has always been number-one goal during crises. This is something that worries borth financial experts and plain folks who are far from the  peculiarities of the financial world but who are still witnessing their savings vanish amid inflation and devaluation.

Publication date: 14 April 02:09 AM

Remember the Key Rules of Investing in Stocks

Without further ado, let's consider a bunch of principles of investing in stock, which will put the odds of succeeding in this business in your favor:

Publication date: 11 March 01:14 AM

Apple Patents iPhone Without Ports And Holes, Device Expected In 2021

It seems that the release of the long-awaited iPhone without any ports or holes is getting more and more portable. Apple has always favored minimalistic designs, especially over the last 5 years. In 2015, almost all of the classic ports were deprecated in MacBooks in favor of a single one - USB-C Thunderbolt 3. In 2017, iPhone 7 got rid of the 3.5mm audio jack.

Publication date: 05 March 08:20 AM

Gold Sets New Records

The gold market is insane. The gold futures price set a new major high in New York. In particular, the dollar price of the precious metal set a new 7- year high. With that being said, maybe you should add gold to your investment portfolio along with BTC? Well,lat's ponder upon this question.

Publication date: 14 January 01:23 AM

Brent Prices Drop Down To $61/b

The concerns over the global demand for crude oil are getting back to the market again. The current trading week has been a week of discounts. Earlier today, Brent oil saw its price drop down to 61 dollars per barrel. The WTI price dropped all the way down to 56 dollars per barrel. The supply side has got an upper hand.
Publication date: 27 September 04:52 AM

Gold Prices Are Getting Stable After Monday's Rally

Last week was rich in the information about various financial markets, which could exert downward pressure on gold prices. Strange as it may seem, the situation in the ore market was relatively calm. Eventually, the week closed in the green zone. Those gains mainly had to do with Friday's gold rally. International traders and investors reacted to the information about another global economic slowdown coupled with the trade war between the United States and China as well as the current situation in the Middle East, and started loading up on gold as a safe-haven asset, which eventually pushed the prices higher. 

Publication date: 24 September 05:15 AM

Oil Prices Have Made The Biggest Rally In History

Gold, yen, and oil currencies are getting more expensive. The strike came for an unexpected direction. Saudi Arabia's oil facilities were attacked, which increased geopolitical risks in the region and simultaneously undermined the global oil supplies. That was basically the reason why crude oil prices made the biggest rally in history but then moved back a bit and are still trading over 10% higher relative to the start of the trading session. 
 
Publication date: 16 September 03:26 AM