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Foreign exchange market

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for May 27 - 31, 2019


  • EUR/USD. Complaints and sometimes even moans have been heard everywhere in the last months about the low volatility of this pair. The same is true about last week, until the second half of Thursday, the maximum range of its fluctuations did not exceed 45 points. The pair spent most of the time napping, sleepily crawling along the narrow corridor of 25 points. However, the events of the week, from the aggravation of the US-China trade war and the upcoming elections to the European Parliament to the statements by the Fed leadership and poor data on business activity in Germany and the Eurozone, played into the hands of the dollar. As a result, the pair, as most experts had suggested (75%), fell to the two-year lows, stopping at $1.1105 per euro.


But it is not only the economy of Europe, but also that of the USA which is experiencing problems. The unexpectedly weak preliminary business activity index Markit (50.9 instead of the expected 53.0) and the weak statistics on the real estate market led to a collapse in the yield of US government bonds and a sharp reversal of the EUR/USD pair to the north.


The euro's recovery was also facilitated by the closure of short positions at the lows reached before the three-day weekend in the USA and the UK. Apparently, the European currency and the statement of the British Prime Minister Theresa May about her resignation added to this. As a result, the euro won back 100 points, and the pair finished the week at 1.1205;

 

  • GBP/USD. So, Mrs. May is leaving. Her version of the Brexit agreement will not be voted once again in Parliament. And the country is in for the next reshuffle in the leadership of the Conservative Party. According to many analysts, the head of the government can now be someone from the supporters of a hard exit from the EU, like the former mayor of London and Foreign Minister Boris Johnson. How will the market react? Most likely the reaction will be negative. But this news has not so far greatly affected investor sentiment: following the euro, taking advantage of weak US macroeconomic statistics, supported by the elimination of short positions, the pair pushed off from the two-year low in the 1.2600 zone and went up, putting the final point in this session at 1.2710;
  • USD/JPY. The Japanese yen could not resist the dollar in the first half of the week either. Recall that 50% of analysts had expected the pair to rise to the height of 111.00, and one third of them has called the highest resistance 110.00 The truth, as often happens, was somewhere in the middle, and the pair fixed the week high at 110.65. After that, investors started to doubt: thanks to the harsh statements of Chinese leader Xi Jinping about the “new Great March” and “independence”, they began to realize that the yen could be a more reliable haven than the dollar. The yield on US government bonds went down, while Wall Street analysts started to talk about a high probability of deterioration in the financial results of American companies in the second half of the year and that the US economy could now be under attack due to rising prices and lower consumer demand. As a result, the pair turned around and, returning to the values of a week ago, completed the five-day week at 109.30;
  • Cryptocurrencies. The crypto market capitalization schedule almost repeats what happens to the reference coin. Bitcoin dropped from $8,335 to $7,000 - capitalization fell from $255.8 billion to $229.2 billion. Bitcoin adjusted to $8.265, and capitalization rose to $255.5 billion. Quite often, this graph can be successfully used as a leading indicator.

It should be recalled that only 25% of experts predicted a trend reversal last week. The overwhelming majority voted for its continuation, finding that the decline in the BTC/USD pair to the level of $7,000 is just a temporary correction. In their opinion, it had to return to the $8,000 zone, after which it should move for some time in the side channel, then approaching the resistance level of 8,500, where its growth was stopped last July, then moving away from it. That's exactly what happened.

 

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