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Sunday, 9 May 13:41 (GMT -05:00)



Foreign exchange market

Pound Will Drive Forex This Week


Before the start of the last trading week of October, the NordFX expert team has come up with another set of weekly consensus forecasts for the forex and cryptocurrency markets. When devising those forecasts, the experts gathered multiple expert opinions and tech analysis. As a result, we get the following picture:
 
- GBP/USD. The British Pound is expected to influence most of the major currencies this week. The thing is that the contents of the new Brexit agreement is now seen as a reason for a possible UK disintegration. According to a range of experts, during the forthcoming voting session, the British parliamentarians will reject the deal, which will bring some factors back, including the uncertainty around the Brexit.
 
Chances are, Monday's trading session will start with a price gap in certain markets. 20% of the oscillators are now indicating an overbought market. A possible defeat of Boris Johnson is likely to trigger another bearish momentum, with the GBP/USD price getting back to early October's lows around 1.2200. The current levels of support are located at 1.2515, 1.2380, and 1.2280.
 
However, if the deal is approved, the pound may exceed the high of the year at 1.3380.
 
The mid-term forecast indicates that even the controled Brexit scenario is going to be a huge factor pressing down the British currency. The UK economy, once  partially isolated from the EU economy, is likely to face major difficulties. If that's the case, the Bank of England is doomed to cut the interest rate and start a new round of quantitative easing. In this case, the pound may return to the 1.3100 area.
 
- EUR/USD. Within the next couple of days, the ECB and the People's Bank of China are expected to announce their interest rate decisions. Most likely, the European regulator will leave the it unchanged while the Chinese one may surprise the international community.
 
Still, the pound is going to be the key driver for financial markets this week. In particular, the pound may drag the euro in any direction.
The key bearish and bullish targets are 1.0850-1.0925 and 1.1250-1.1350 respectively. In the meantime, 80% of the experts expect the British Parliament to approve the deal and 20% anticipate a rejected deal.
 
- USD/JPY. The targets for the Japanese Yen are unchanged. These are the levels of support at 107.00, 106.65, and 105.70, while the the levels of resistance are 109.00 and 109.85. However, it should be noted that the experts have change their sentiment. 60% of them support a move up while the remaining 40% expect a move in the opposite direction. The mid-term picture is this: 40% are bulls and 60% are bears.
 
Indicators also fail to show unity. 80% of the oscillators are painted red, the remaining 20% indicate an oversold market. On D1, 80% of the oscillators have turned green. The D1 chart analysis indicates a possible move up to 109.00 after moving down to 107.50.
 
- Cryptocurrencies. BTC/USD has been moving within the 7,795-8,700 range for the last 4 weeks. The pivot point is ar 8,300. The wave analysis indicates a possible recovery. However, the experts warn that tech analysis is often useless when it comes to cryptocurrencies because the market is still sensitive to news and speculation. 60% of the experts anticipate a break below the bottom of the mentioned range with a move down to 7,000-7,400. The remaining 40% anticipate a move up to 8,300-8,700.
 

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