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Thursday, 18 July 16:24 (GMT -05:00)



Foreign exchange market

NordFX Shares Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecasts for Early March 2019


The balance of powers in the international currency market (also known as forex) influences many contemporary tendencies in the entire world. At the same time, traders and investors rely on accurate forex forecasts to earn money. That is why we keep on publishing those weekly consensus forecasts, courtesy of NordFX.
 
In particular, the local expert team has come up with another forecast based on the time-tested approach, which boils down to studying tons of related sources, expert opinions, as well as predictions made based on technical and graphical analysis.
 
EUR/USD.
 
The latest report shows that the American economy grew by 2,9% in 2018. President Trump promises that the national economy will grow even stronger this year. He names 3.0% when predicting the economic growth in 2019. However, unlike Donald Trump, the Fed has predicted a recession and a slowdown to 2,3% this year.
 
Also, when estimating the possible market scenarios, it's necessary to take into account the statements made by several representatives of the ECB. They expect the European economy to gain 0,5% in each quarter of 2019. This creates a controversial situation. The experts are divided 50/50. However, most of the experts assume that the exchange rate is likely to keep moving withing the 1.1300-1.1500 range set in October 2018. However, reaching the highs and lows is not excluded. The range may expand slightly to 1.1215-1.1570.
 
When switching from the weekly chart to the meed-term perspective, the bulls has gained the upper hand - 65% of the experts anticipate a rally to the 1.1700-1.1800 area. That's backed by 80% of the indicators, which have turned green. Still, 15% of D1 oscillators indicate an overbought asset. Fluctuations within the 1.1215-1.1455 range are possible.
 
When it comes to significant events to take into account this week, pay your attention to the ECB meeting scheduled for Thursday. Chances are, we will get to know Mario Draghi's successor. Also, the volatility may increase after the Eurozone GDP report and the U.S. employment stats. The reports are to be published on Thursday and Friday respectively. 
 
GBP/USD
 
Last week's optimism associated with the British Pound turned out to be temporary. A posible delay in the Brexit process can hardly be called a solution. The next Brexit voting is scheduled for March 12. It only then that we will know whether the decision will be delated.If the voting fails again, Theresa May will have to raise the question of forbidding the UK to quit the EU without a major agreement. If the parliament approves  the corresponding decision, the parliamentarians will get a chance to delay the Brexit talks till next time. 
 
Given the uncertainty around the Brexit voting, the experts cannot tell for sure how the situation will affect the British Pound. For now, around 60% of the experts anticipate a drop down to 1.3115, with next levels of support located at 1.2965 and 1.2830. The remaining 40% think the British Pound will rebound from 1.3200 to head for 1.3315, 1.3470. If that's the case, the next level of resistance is 1.3615.
 
USD/JPY
 
Most experts (65%) draw our attention to the increasing risk tolerance and more expensive oil when talking about USD/JPY. The experts assume the Japanese Yen is likely to keep losing value under such circumstances, which means a rally, probably up to 112.25-113.25. The next target is 114.20. The scenario is backed by the technical analysis of the D1 chart.

1551537922_USDJPY_04.03.2019.png

On the other hand, around 20% of the oscillators on H4 and D1 signal an overbought asset, which may result in a deep retracement. That's why 70% of the experts do not deny a possible reversal of the trend, with a move down to 110.25. The next support is located at 109.15.
 
Cryptocurrencies
 
Despite the current weakness, the cryptocurrency market still has a positive news background. For starters, J.P.Morgan is reported to have successfully tested JPM Coin. At this point, the market has been waiting for similar projects from Facebook and Telegram. According to the experts, introducing WhatsApp's own coin will make it possible to expand the use of cryptocurrencies up to 35% pf the world's population. 
 
Against the positive background, many crypto-enthusiasts resumed their talks about cryptocurrencies recovering and getting ready to skyrocket to new heights. According to IBM's Vice President of Blockchain Department , Bitcoin may recover up to 5000 dollars per coin by the the end of 2019. After that, Bitcoin will keep growing until it reaches 1 million dollars per coin.  
 
Apparently, the latter is more like a hope than a forecast. Still, 65% of the experts are getting positive on the future of Bitcoin. They are certain that the coin will consolidate above 4000 dollars per coin and move towards 4,300-4,600 dollars per coin in the near future. The remaining 35% of the experts are bearish on Bitcoin, anticipating a move down to 3,200-3,500 dollars per coin.

 

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