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Monday, 19 October 18:55 (GMT -05:00)



Foreign exchange market

Cryptocurrency Market Will Get Feverish By Mid February 2019


There is quite a lot of factors out there capable of influence the currency market in general, and cryptocurrency market in particular. In their turn, currency exchange rates can influence the entire world. At the same time, professional traders and investors take those exchange rates into account to avoid losses and make profits. At the same time, they don't mid taking expert opinions into account to be more accurate in their own predictions as well as the trading decisions based on them.
 
As usual, NordFX has come up with another weekly consensus forecast for some of the most traded major currency pairs. The methods and approaches the forecast is based on have proved to be highly efficient. With that being said, let's go ahead and take a closer look at it:
 
EUR/USD. After a week-long downtrend, most indicators have found themselves deep in the red zone. Still, around 25% of the oscillators on H4 and D1 indicate an oversold market. So, this may indicate that at least a strong recovery is coming, or even a trend reversal. The currency pair is likely to trade within the 1.1285-1.1400 range this trading week. Somewhere around late February is likely to find itself close to 1.1500, around the upper boundary of the mid-term channel. 
 
It's interesting to note that international experts are not in a hurry to make more specific predictions. They are equally split in half. One part of them think thatSome of them anticipate a rally, the others anticipate a move in the opposite direction, backed by the current uncertainty around the so-called Brexit ad the trade confrontation between the United States and China. 
 
At the same time, we should take into account some of the key economic and financial reports scheduled for the trading week. In particular, the GDP reports from Germany and the EU are scheduled for Thursday. The U.S. inflation and retail sales reports are scheduled for February 13th and 14th respectively. 
 
On top of that, Tuesday is the time when the Fed is to reveal their plans related to interest rate hikes. for now the level of recession expectations in the USA has increased all the way up to 20%. This leads us to belive that the Fed may postpone another interest rate hike until better times. At the same time, the ECB and BOE keep on mentioning some risks related to economic growth. These may result in monetary easing.
 
Given all of the info mentioned above, experts recommend considering stock purchases. The thing is that an economic slowdown amid cheap money may trigger a price rally in the stock market. By the way, if you are looking to benefit from stocks, we recommend considering portfolio investments with NordFX. Such portfolios include some of the most stable, reliable and promising stocks, allowing you to profit even during the times of decreased economic performance. 
 
GBP/USD. The GDP and inflation reports from the UK are scheduled to be released on Tuesday and Wednesday respectively. Experts anticipate a report indicating an economic slowdown in the UK. They GDP is expected to shrink by 0,6% against the previous reporting period and reach as little as 0,2%. Still, the Brexit, as well as all of the rumors related to it, is the key factor influencing the British Pound exchange rates.  
 
Some independent sources, including Bloomberg, report that some international companies have been actively loading up on the British Pound. On top of that, 60% of the experts participating in the consensus forecast predict a stronger pound. They expect GBP/USD to reach 1.3040, with a further move up by 80-100 points.
 
The remaining 40% anticipate a move at least down to 1.2830. As for the tech analysis part fo the forecast, it is controversial  - indicating a move down to 1.2830, followed by a move up to 1.3040.
 
USD/JPY. When it come to the Japanese Yen, most of the experts are neutral. The same holds true for the indicators. On the one hand, the situation has been influenced by a strengthening dollar against other majors. On the other hand, there is a higher risk of a global economic slowdown, coupled with a chance of the US-China trade conflict being escalated to a new level. The latter has been favoring a stronger yen as a safe-haven asset. The market has been controversial at best while trading within the 109.55-110.15 range.
 
BTC/USD. As for the crypto market, the market situation may change drastically after the full version of the SEC Commissioner Robert Jackson is released this week. The content may equally send the prices lower or higher.
 

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Anyways, the SEC still has a couple of months to make the final decision on the Bitcoin-ETF application. Over this period, many things may change. For now, the most likely scenario for Bitcoin is move within the $3,250-3,800 range, probably with a short-term move up to $4000 per coin. 
 

 

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