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Wednesday, 23 October 07:06 (GMT -05:00)

Stock and commodities markets

Will U.S. Stock Market Grow This Year?

The American stock market has reached another crucial strange. The forthcoming macroeconomic stats may trigger a major move in any of the 2 directions. International experts say that the future market reaction will depend on a number of macroeconomic stats as well as several events. However, the current bias seems to be bullish since at this point, there are no major reasons to expect another stock market crash within the next 12-18 months.
Over the period of early October - the end of 2018, S&P 500 lost around 15,6% but given the uptrend that preceded the mentioned downtrend, the overall annual performance in 2018 turned out to be -8,2%. The index started 2018 in the green zone. In particular, over the first 8 days of the year, S&P 500 gained 2,85% and reached 2580 points. At this point, international experts are trying to figure out whether this was a temporary recovery or the beginning of a new rally.
In reality, the bears sound really convincing. For starters, they still take into account the risk of the Fed raising the key interest rates this year. Since early 2018, the Fed has already implemented 4 interest rate hikes (from 1,5% all the way up to 2,5%). Every time this is happening, this is bad news for the stock market, so the market starts going down.
At the same time, the skeptics are talking about the possibility of higher inflation rates in the USA. For those of you who don't know, the inflation rate is directly related to the interest rates since curbing inflation is the key reason for tougher monetary policies pursued by the Federal Reserve. In January - November 2018, the inflation rate increased from 2,1% up to 2,5%.
The next argument to take into account is the statement about the reversal of the so-called yield curve of American 
T-bonds. In early December, the 3-year U.S. T-bond yield increased the 5-year one. Stating from 1955, the yield curve has always indicated a forthcoming recession in the USA. However, in post cases, it was the change in the spread between the 2-year and 10-year bond yields that indicated the recession. For now, everything is fine with them.
At the same time, international experts name another reason to be concerned. In particular, they say that the current bullish cycle in the U.S. stock market has been abnormally long. The bears say economic cycles last for 10 years, but this statement should be treated as an emotional and opinionated look at the current situation. Historically, those cycles varied in length, with some of them being well over 10 years long.

The market hasn't reached the edge yet.


Some experts say that the stock market is driven by emotions. Sir John Templeton once said, “Bull markets are born on pessimism, grown on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria.” This is exactly what we could see in the late 1990s in the dot-com sector and in 2005-2007 in the real estate sector. The euphoria led to a crash and economic collapse. Still, the current market situation isn't indicating such triggers yet. Non of the sectors has euphoria. Real estate, industrial stocks, and commodities are all reasonably priced at this point. The P/E multiplier of S&P 500 has dropped down to 21 points, as opposed to 25 points seen 12 months ago. The forward value of the multiplier is 16,5. With that being said, the market hasn't reach this state yet.
At the same time, some other experts draw our attention to a couple of indicators. Those are said to have reached dangerous values right before each recession in the U.S. economy. At the same time, the Yield Curve and the PMI are the other 2 indicators that would find themselves in the red zone right in advance of another recession. At this point, non of the 6 key indicators has turned red. This leads us to belive that the market bias is probably going to stay bullish over the next 12-18 months.


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Brent Prices Drop Down To $61/b

The concerns over the global demand for crude oil are getting back to the market again. The current trading week has been a week of discounts. Earlier today, Brent oil saw its price drop down to 61 dollars per barrel. The WTI price dropped all the way down to 56 dollars per barrel. The supply side has got an upper hand.
Publication date: 27 September 04:52 AM

Gold Prices Are Getting Stable After Monday's Rally

Last week was rich in the information about various financial markets, which could exert downward pressure on gold prices. Strange as it may seem, the situation in the ore market was relatively calm. Eventually, the week closed in the green zone. Those gains mainly had to do with Friday's gold rally. International traders and investors reacted to the information about another global economic slowdown coupled with the trade war between the United States and China as well as the current situation in the Middle East, and started loading up on gold as a safe-haven asset, which eventually pushed the prices higher. 

Publication date: 24 September 05:15 AM

Oil Prices Have Made The Biggest Rally In History

Gold, yen, and oil currencies are getting more expensive. The strike came for an unexpected direction. Saudi Arabia's oil facilities were attacked, which increased geopolitical risks in the region and simultaneously undermined the global oil supplies. That was basically the reason why crude oil prices made the biggest rally in history but then moved back a bit and are still trading over 10% higher relative to the start of the trading session. 
Publication date: 16 September 03:26 AM

iOS13 Outshines iPhone

For Apple fans, September has been a special month from many years. This is the time when Apple introduces the biggest innovations and the latest products destined to be best sellers for the next 12 months. This time, everything is likely going to be the same. In just a couple of days, on September 10th, we are to witness another Apple event.
Publication date: 05 September 03:28 AM

US-China Trade War Makes Oil Prices Drop

The previous trading week wasn't an exiting one. The oil prices grew in the first part of the week while trying to make up for the losses of the previous week. Still, the second half of the week turned out to be a bearish one. WTI oil prices dropped below 55 dollars per barrel while brent oil dropped down to 61 dollars per barrel. Yet, the bearish momentum is still there.

Publication date: 04 August 08:33 AM

Gold Prices At Highest Levels Since 2013

The recent statements made by the governors and presidents of the world's leading central banks, including the Fed and the ECB, eventually resulted ingold prices making it over 1400 dollars per troy ounce. This means that the current price of gold is the highest one over the last 6 years. So, the bull market of gold is underway.
Publication date: 03 August 04:17 AM

Middle East Tensions Support Oil Prices

The currenty trading week has been controversial for the international market of crude oil. Chances are, the market is going to be relatively neutral throughout the rest of the week. Brent oil is trading around 63,50 dollars per barrel while WTI costs 56 dollars per barrel.
Publication date: 30 July 11:07 AM

Is Economic Decline In USA Inevitable?

The NY Fed model points out to the fact that the probability of another recession in the American economy has increased all the way up to 33%. Over the last 50 years, such signals have almost always bee followed by recessions.
Publication date: 13 July 08:39 AM

Will USA Manage To Prevent Stock Market Crash?

The U.S. Federal Reserve has eased their rhetorics in order to avoid another stock market crash. International experts are now trying to predict the possible consequences of the decision made by the American financial regulator, especially form the stand point of international investors. 

Publication date: 11 July 11:31 AM

Masterforex-V Names Biggest Stock Exchanges

Stock exchanges have been operating worldwide for many decades. They are specific financial institutions  or marketplaces that operate to let people and companies invet in various stocks and other securities. Those are the stocks issued by various companies representing various industries - from mining to services. These days, you can invest in stocks, indexes, bonds, options, and other securities.
Publication date: 17 May 11:57 AM