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Thursday, 11 August 10:35 (GMT -05:00)

Foreign exchange market

NordFX Names Key Events for Forex and Cryptocurrency Markets

NordFX is back with their weekly consensus forecast for the week. We must confess that the forecast based on a number of technical indicators and expert opinions have been really efficient in predicting future market behaviors. With that being said, this is an overview of the recent forecast made for the current trading week, which is January 14-18, 2019.
EURUSD. To start with, the experts remind us that the cost of the common European currency depends heavily on crude oil and metal prices, which are commodities. It should be noted that the current state of affairs in the commodity market is in favor of the bulls, especially in the energy sector. The thing is that the OPEC is planning to get rid of the excessive oil supplies in the global market of crude oil. If that's the case, we are likely to see the prices grow, which in its turn, will definitely help the common European currency to strengthen its position against the U.S. Dollar. In the meantime, the Fed is repored to have decided to take a break from raining the interest rates. This makes some investors conerned. 
As a result, around 65% of the analysts participating in the consensus forecast, backed by 90% of oscillators and 70% of trending indicators on timeframe D1, vote for an uptrend. They assume the currency pair may rise all the way up to 1.1500, and further up to 1.1625.


At the same time, there are experts who expect the dollar to strengthen. In particular, they expect the currency pair to move back into the 1.1300-1.1500 price range to stay there for a long time. That's why they expect EURUSD to move down to 1.1400 first and fall another 100 points down afterwards. 
GBPUSD. Most indicators applied to GBPUSD are now green. At the same time, around 10% of the D1 oscillators indicate that the market is oversold right now. The graphical analysis of the D1 timeframe indicates the likelihood of the currency pair going down to 1.2600. As for the experts, the votes are split almost equally between the bull s and the bears, with the former having a slight edge over the latter.
At the same time, we should keep in mind several major events that may affect the situation. In particular, the British parliament is to decide on the Brexit. The voting is scheduled for January, 15. Chances are, the parliamentarians will reject the draft agreement put forward by Theresa May. If that's the case, London will have to ask for another timeout in the Brexit process. At the same time, it's getting more and more evident that the UK government is not planning to quit the EU the hard way. This assumption alone has been backing a stronger pound. At the same time, higher oil prices are playing against the dollar and therefore supporting the pound. The bottom line is, it's useless to make specific predicting related to the currency pair until the voting results are maked public. When evaluating the situation, the experts only name the key levels of support and resistance. Support: 1.2780, 1.2720, 1.2660, and 1.2600. Resistance – 1.2925 and 1.3050.
USDJPY. The D1 indicators are currently voting in favor of a stringer yen. 65% of the experts share this opinion. They expect the currency pair to move down to 107.50-107.80, with a further plunge to 106.70. On the other hand, low interest rates in Japan have helped the currency pair to strengthen quite a lot so far while following the world's major stock indexes. With that being said, that allows the experts to expect a move to 109.80 and 109.45, with a possible move to 110.25-110.80.
Cryptocurrencies. Despite the fact that the market cap has been going down so far, the average amount of Bitcoin transactions has increased all the way up to 280.000, which is last year's highs. That's why it's useless to go on with the doomsday scenario for Bitcoin, the world's first and biggest cryptocurrency yet. 
At the same time, there is a really high probability of BTC/USD breaking back below 3.700 dollars per coin, with a chance of getting even lower - down to 3.250 dollars per coin. This is the scenario backed by 45% of the experts. the rest of the, think that the currency pair will stay within the 3.685-4.385 range. As for the bullish scenario implying a move up to 5000 dollars per coin, the experts are really cautious about making such predictions, especially for the near future. As for Ethereum, they think that the ETHUSD is likely to go up in value after the forking process resulting in Constantinople. 



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