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Foreign exchange market

Weekly Forex and Crypto Forecast By NordFX. December 10-14, 2018.


The actual value of each and every currency put there is the result of many factors influencing the global market. In their turn, currency exchange rates affect many other processes out there. With that being said, considering a number of opinions expressed by experts can help traders and investors make better decision leading to increased financial performance.
 
NordFX analysts decided to share another weekly forecast.For starters, the experts suggest recollecting last week's market behavior to figure out to what extent those predictions came true. 
 
While applying a range of methods, tools and techniques, which have proved to be good at predicting future market behaviors, the experts came up with a new weekly forecast. To some extent, this is a consensus forecast, which takes into account the predictions based on various approaches, techniques, and methods of technical and graphical analysis. This allowed them to come up with a more-or-less clear picture, including the most probable scenarios for the trading week. This time the period is December 10-14, 2018.
 

USDJPY

Over the last couple of weeks of December, international traders and investors start fixing the annual results - profits or losses. There is a lot of macroeconomic news scheduled for the next couple of days. They may affect the EUR/USD exchange rate.
 
THe U.S. inflation stats will be published on Wednesday. The higher the inflation rate is, the more chances of another interest rate hike (and dollar strengthening) there will be. Judging by the futures, international traders and investors doubt that the Fed will raise the interest rates in March 2019.
 
The next day, the Eurozone is expected to publish its interest rate decision. Most likely, the situation won't change and the interest rate will remain unchanged. That's why the experts are planning to focus on the following pres conference held be ECB President Mario Draghi.
 
Friday is the time of another retail sales report from the United States. Apparently, the market is going to be closely watching the updates on the trade war between Beijing and Washington. For those of you who don't know, Huawei's financial director was arrested the other day, which only added more fuel to the fire. At this point, the entire market is looking forward to Donald Trump's reaction to the incident.
 
At the start of the trading week, most experts  and technical indicators are neutral. The bulls seem to have an upper hand, but this advantage is really vague. Those why are bullish on EUR/USD name the 1.1500-1.1550 area as the next target for the price. They assume that the current area of support is located in between 1.1265 and 1.1215. The key forecast seems to be mimicking last week's scenario, which boils down to fluctuations within the 1.1310-1.1415 range.
 
As for GBP/USD, the situation is similar. The bulls can only boast a 5% advantage. Almost 90% of the trending indicators and 70% of the oscillators are red. The market may experience the influence of the British GDP stats scheduled to be released on Monday, as well as Tuesday's salary stats.
 
However, the key and most influencial event of the week is clearly going to be the Brexit voting in the Parliament scheduled for Tuesday. According to numerous forecasts, the parliamentarians may well refuse to approve the draft agreement defining the process and conditions of quitting the EU. If that's the case, the re-voting may be scheduled for February 2019. Under such circumstances, the British Pound is likely going to fill increased downward pressure. The closest levels of support are 1.2660, 1.2540, and 1.2500, while the closest levels of resistance are 1.2810, 1.2850, and 1.29250.
 
USD/JPY is expected to be influenced by the Japanese GDP report scheduled for Monday. This is a major report worth considering when it comes to trading the Japanese Yen. it's interesting to note that traders are now using the Japanese Yen as a safe-haven asset while closely watching the trade war between the USA and China. Some 65% of the trending indicators promote a stronger yen, with a move down to 112.20. The next levels of support are 111.75, 110.85. The closest levels of resistance are located at 113.20, 113.65, and 114.00.
 
As for the cryptocurrency market, which used to be a decentralized market environment, has now been under pressure for quite a while as international governments have been desperately trying to regulate the market and benefit from that. This has been a bearish factor for Bitcoin and altcoins. When trying to define the most likely market scenarios for digital currencies, international experts suggest considering a couple of expected events.
 
For example, South Korea is planning to tax the income from crypto-trading. In Japan, apart from mandatory registration, all ICOs and crypto-exchanges will be forced to disclose any info about their investors upon request. In Singapore, ICO market participants will have to be licensed and contribute to the fight against money laundering. Some crypto-related legislation toughening is expected in Switzerland and some other countries around the world.
 
It seems like international governments are slowly starting to see the benefits of blockchain. That's why they are planning to put an end to this cryptocurrency chaos and start emitting their own cryptocurrencies instead. Honduras and Iran are already emitting their own cryptocurrencies. And many other countries are going to join them in the near future, experts say.
 
As for Bitcoin, 65% of international experts anticipate another move down. This time, the BTC exchange rate is expected to dive all the way down to $3000 and maybe even down to $2500. 25% expect a flat market. THe remaining 10% stay optimistic and predict a move up to $4000-5000.

 

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