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Tuesday, 23 April 02:35 (GMT -05:00)



Foreign exchange market

NordFX Expects Cryptocurrencies and Euro to Go Further Down


The relation between 2 currencies at a certain point of time is the result of the market being simultaneously influenced by a whole lot of various factor of various impact and origin. Currency exchange rates, in their turns, affect man other processes meaningful for the majority of people in all parts of the world. 
 
NordFX analysts decided to share another weekly forecast.
For starters, the experts suggest recollecting last week's market behavior to figure out to what extent those predictions came true. 
 
While applying a range of methods, tools and techniques, which have proved to be good at predicting future market behaviors, the experts came up with a new weekly forecast. To some extent, this is a consensus forecast, which takes into account the predictions based on various approaches, techniques, and methods of technical and graphical analysis. This allowed them to come up with a more-or-less clear picture, including the most probable scenarios of the trading week.
 
Having studied the set of factors that can possibly affect EUR/USD, the analysts report that the key event of the week to watch out for is the forthcoming urgent summit of European leaders, where they are expected to discuss the so-called Brexit. The event is planned for November 25-26. If the talks turn out to be a success, the currency pair may go back to November highs around 1.1470 and 1.1500. Over 40% of the experts participating in the consensus forecast share this opinion. The remaining 60% of them expect a stronger dollar.
 
On Wednesday, the USA is to publish their GDP figures for Q3 2018. Should the figures turn out to be stronger than the previous ones (for Q2 2018), the U.S. dollar will definitely get considerable support. Another major event scheduled for the trading week is the Fed's FOMC meeting that's to take place on Thursday. The experts don't expect any surprises from the financial regulator. The bears' goals are located around 1.1300 and 1.1215 - the low of 2018. If the price breaks below that level, the next level of support is 1.1120. Around 15% of the oscillators on H4 are indicating an oversold market, which may hint at a slight recovery in the coming days.
 
In case with GBP/USD, almost 100% of the indicators are painted red. However, the situation may well change while driven by this week's major news and events. Once again, it's all about the Brexit. The European leaders should decide on the terms and conditions of Great Britain leaving the European Union. Should they come up with an agreement, it should also be approved by the British parliament. Chances are, the parliamentarians will reject the agreement, the experts say. If that's the case, there should be another round of voting, which is likely to be scheduled for February 2019 in this case. Apparently, such a scenario is no good for the British Pound since the investors will probably start  withdrawing their investments from the British Pound, thereby making it weaker. The closest levels of support are 1.2720, 1.2695, and 1.2660. The closest levels of resistance are 1.2885, 1.2925, and 1.3025.
 
As for the Japanese Yen, it often moves against the trend of major European currencies. With that being said, JPY often moves up when EUR and GBP move down. Over 55% of the experts, coupled with 90% of oscillators, and 70% of trending indicators, expect USD/JPY to move down to 112.60  and below.
 

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At the same time, they don't deny the possibility of testing 112.00. However, since the market is oversold, 45% of he experts do not deny a rally up to 113.15-113.40 and 114.20-114.55.
 
As for cryptocurrencies they are likely to keep moing down in value, with Bitcoin probably trying to test $4000 USD/BTC. If that's he case, the next target is $3000 USD/BTC. At the same time, there are rumors that Ethereum-based smart contracts have vulnerabilities. If that's true, may well expect another round of weakness for ETH/USD.
 

There's good news for crypto bulls. THere is a divergence between the BTC exchange rate and many oscillators. This fact may hint at a highly probably recovery, even though it may be a short-term bullish trend.  

 

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