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Wednesday, 22 May 12:05 (GMT -05:00)



Foreign exchange market

U.S. Hedge Funds Are Playing Against Russian Ruble


For the first time since last year, American traders are playing against the Russian Ruble again. The net cumulative position on the RUB futures has now turned negative. For the most part, the traders (mostly hedge funds) are now betting on the further wekaness of the Russian Ruble in the near future. This is confirmed by the latest CFTC report. 
 
In a single week the bulls reduced the amount of long positions on the RUSDRUB exchange rate by as much as 41%, while the bears increased their short positions up to the highest level since November 2017. 
 
According to NordFX, within the scope of the current bearish cycle, started in August, the Russian Rubble set a new local low on September 10. The next one was set 2 weeks later. However, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation decided to raise the key interest rate by 0,25% up to 7,5%, which supported the Russian currency for a while. However, the Russian economy and national currency have been under the pressure coming from the Western sanctions.

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However, despite the recent weakness, the Ruble has recored a bit. Int's interesting to note that some international investors are now going bullish when speaking about the near-term prospects of the Russian Ruble. They truly belive that the currency is going to recover, which is something that has already been going on for a while. For the most part, this has been happening due to stronger oil prices. 
 
For those of you who don't know, Russia has been a major oil producer and exporter, with its economy and national currency heavily dependent on oil prices. If crude oil keeps on getting more expensive, the Russian Ruble is likely to get even bigger support, which seems especialy likely amid multiple predictions that crude oil is indeed going to reach $100/b and even higher.

 

 

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