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Monday, 23 July 09:05 (GMT -05:00)



Stock and commodities markets

OPEC and Russia Created a Dangerous Rival


Russian oil expert Ivan Priobrazhenskiy has commented on the negative outcome of curbing oil production (the OPEC+ deal). He claims that while trying to create an artificial deficit in the global oil market, the OPEC+ deal participants actually did American shale oil producers a huge favor. The thing is that American shale oil companies have been boosting their production over the last year or so, and they can take the United States to the status of the world’s biggest oil producer. They have already outpaced Saudi Arabia and are close to outpacing Russia, which is currently number one in the world in terms of crude oil production.
 
At the same time, America becoming the world’s leading oil producer is not something unreal anymore. By the way, this is exactly what the IEA predicts. Given the fact that the IEA is headquartered in France, we can say that the agency is equidistant from all the parties concerned. The local experts publish oil reports on a regular basis. The latest one reads that the American shale oil companies are going to boost their production in the near future.
 

 

Another production increase may trigger a price drop in the global oil market. In this case, lower oil prices will result from increasing oversupply, which is a natural outcome in such situations.
 

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The report reads that over the period of September through November, American shale oil companies increased their production by 846K b/d. So, they expect the United States to outperform Russia and become number one later this year.
 
At the same time, experts predict the global economy to accelerate its growth this and next year, which will definitely increase the global demand for crude oil. The IMF also expects the growth rate to be higher than expected. Based on the IMF’s report, the IEA increased their global demand growth forecast from 1,3 million b/d up to 1,4 million b/d. However, it’s interesting to note that last year, this rate happened to be slightly higher – 1,6 million b/d.
 
The OPEC+ deal stimulated higher shale oil production in the United States
 
In theory, this set of rules is supposed to trigger an oil rally, which is something that was planned by Russia and the OPEC when they were signing and then extending the so-called OPEC+ agreement designed to cap their oil production.
 
Indeed, the IEA reports that the participants’ oil inventories did actually drop dramatically ­– from 264 million barrels in December 2016 all the way down to 52 million barrels in December 2017. On the other hand, lower inventories and higher prices triggered another shale oil boom in the USA. Apparently, American shale oil got profitable again. The thing is, that shale oil production is relatively costly, which makes it unprofitable at low oil prices.
 
The bottom line is that Russia and the OPEC actually helped the American shale oil industry to rise again, thereby creating a serious rival. The shale oil production in the United States has been booming over the recent months. Experts report that the local shale oil companies altogether have already outperformed Saudi Arabia in terms of daily oil production and are now on their way to outpace Russia and become the world’s biggest oil producer.
 

 

NordFX experts report that Brent oil is currently trading at 65,6 dollars per barrel.m2us86v28gonsi3bjkxtsbcoj.png

 

 

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Oil Prices May Skyrocket to $400/b if Iran Blocks the Strait of Hormuz

Blocking the Strait of Hormuz will inevitably trigger a global energy crisis while pushing oil prices to unseen heights, maybe even all the way up to $400/b. This is what the experts interviewed by PRIME think about the situation.

Publication date: 19 July 09:45 AM

Higher OPEC+ Production Quotas Won’t Raise Oil Prices, Kudrin Says

Chairman of the Russian Accounts Chamber Alexei Kudrin assumes that the OPEC+ participants’ decision to increase the daily oil production quotas won’t affect international oil prices.

Publication date: 16 July 09:58 AM

Trump Urges OPEC to Raise Their Daily Oil Production by 2M Barrels

Donald Trump claims that the OPEC should raise their daily oil production by 2 million barrels. During his interview to Fox News, he accused the oil cartel of manipulating oil prices.

Publication date: 05 July 11:47 AM

OPEC+ Participants Want to Make the Deal Indefinite but Without Quotes

According to Russian Minister of Energy Alexander Novak, the leaders of Russia and Saudi Arabia decided to extend the OPEC+ deal. The minister said that this decision to make the deal indefinite in time took place not so long ago in Moscow. 

Publication date: 27 June 11:27 AM

Saudi Arabia Raises Oil Prices for Asian and European Buyers

Saudi Arabia is reported to have raised oil prices for Asian and European importers. This is confirmed by Bloomberg.

Publication date: 09 June 10:26 PM

Market Players Play Oil Price Guessing Games

The international market of crude oil seems to be in panic. Yet, the panic is snowballing. The reason for that is said to be the statement made by Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak about the possibility of easing the OPEC+ deal in June 2018, which came as a surprise to the international trading community.

 
Publication date: 29 May 01:41 PM

USA Outpaces Russia to Become World’s Biggest Oil Producer

In March 2018, the United States outpaced Russia in terms of oil production. This means that the USA is now the biggest producer of crude oil in the world.

Publication date: 24 May 11:26 AM

Crude Oil Goes Above $80/b, Morgan Stanley Improves Oil Forecast

On Thursday, May 17th, Brent oil exceeded $80/b for the first time in 3,5 years. The last time the price reached this level was on November 25th, 2014.

Publication date: 17 May 11:20 AM

Oil Prices At $79/b, Russian Ruble Still Weak. Why?

On Tuesday, May 15th, Brent oil reached $79/b. Strange as it may seem, the Russian Ruble hasn’t reacted to this so far, even though this always has been a positive sign for Russia’s national economy and currency heavily reliant on crude oil prices. Moreover, the currency has been going slightly down for a while despite being backed by higher oil prices.

Publication date: 15 May 01:19 PM

Russia Isn’t Interested In OPEC+ Anymore

Right in advanced of the forthcoming OPEC+ summit some experts doubt that Russia is still interested in the agreement. The strategic objectives of the OPEC+ deal are almost reached. The imbalance in the global oil market has almost been eliminated. The cost of a barrel of Brent oil has increased by more than 100% since late 2016. At this point Brent oil is trading above 70 dollars per barrel. On Q1 2018, the OPEC made 400 million dollars a day more than 12 months before.

Publication date: 28 April 07:57 AM