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Monday, 21 May 16:27 (GMT -05:00)



Stock and commodities markets

U.S. DoE Predicts Oil Market Oversupply over the Next 2 Year


The United States Department of Energy doesn't believe in the OPEC+ deal and expects excessive supply in the global market over the next 2 years. In particular, the January short-term report released by the DoE confirms that. They say this is going to be long-term oversupply.
 
Apparently, the oversupply is expected to take place as the result of the shale oil renaissance in the USA, Canada and other oil nations not participating in the mentioned oil agreement that was designed to cap the production and balance the market to let the prices grow to comfortable levels. Those nations are expected to export 2,4 million barrels a day.

On a global scale, the global supply is expected to increase by 2,8 million barrels a day, which the highest increase since 2014. At the same time, the global demand for crude oil is expected to grow by as little as 1,7 million barrels a day. Apparently, Asian exporters are expected to contribute to this demand growth since Europe is unlikely to consume more crude oil than today. Canada
isexpectedtocutdownontheconsumption.

Last year, the average daily production and consumption stayed at 97,97 million barrels and 98,38 barrels respectively. This made the oil inventories decrease, which consequently led to a 30% increase in oil prices all the way up to 69 dollars per barrels for Brent oil, which became the highest price since December 2014.

However, the DoE experts believe that the party is almost over for the OPEC and some of their allies. The thing is that the oil producers altogether are expected to start producing 0,2 million barrels a day more than consumed worldwide, and the oversupply is going to increase up to 0,35 million barrels a day in 2019. In some quarters, the oversupply may increase to 1 million barrels a day.

This means that the OPEC+ deal is probably doomed to fail. The thing is that the commercial oil inventories are expected to grow all the way up to 2,964 billion barrels against 2,908 billion barrels in December 2017, to 3,049 billion barrels on late 2019.

 


At the same time, the DoE predicts a faster-than-expected increase in the American shale oil production. To be more specific, the forecast was raised from 10,23m b/d to 10,58m b/d, to 11,4m b/d in 2019, FortFS experts report.

 

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Crude Oil Goes Above $80/b, Morgan Stanley Improves Oil Forecast

On Thursday, May 17th, Brent oil exceeded $80/b for the first time in 3,5 years. The last time the price reached this level was on November 25th, 2014.

Publication date: 17 May 11:20 AM

Oil Prices At $79/b, Russian Ruble Still Weak. Why?

On Tuesday, May 15th, Brent oil reached $79/b. Strange as it may seem, the Russian Ruble hasn’t reacted to this so far, even though this always has been a positive sign for Russia’s national economy and currency heavily reliant on crude oil prices. Moreover, the currency has been going slightly down for a while despite being backed by higher oil prices.

Publication date: 15 May 01:19 PM

Russia Isn’t Interested In OPEC+ Anymore

Right in advanced of the forthcoming OPEC+ summit some experts doubt that Russia is still interested in the agreement. The strategic objectives of the OPEC+ deal are almost reached. The imbalance in the global oil market has almost been eliminated. The cost of a barrel of Brent oil has increased by more than 100% since late 2016. At this point Brent oil is trading above 70 dollars per barrel. On Q1 2018, the OPEC made 400 million dollars a day more than 12 months before.

Publication date: 28 April 07:57 AM

Who Loses and Wins from Oil Prices At $70/b?

High oil prices have two sides of one coin. On the one hand, while oil producers are  benefiting from today’s oil prices over $70/b, this seems to be  creating an extra pain for oil consumers worldwide. What exactly has been happening to oil-producing economies?

Publication date: 28 April 06:10 AM

American Oil Export to Europe Quadruples Thanks to OPEC+

As predicted by many experts, the OPEC+ agreement has been favoring American shale oil producers. The export of American oil to Europe has quadrupled. The thing is that the agreement between the OPEC and Russia-led non-OPEC oil producers pushed oil prices high enough to make American shale oil production profitable again.

Publication date: 26 April 05:26 AM

Russian Oil Production Is About To Peak and Start Declining in the Near Future

According to Finanz, with reference to the International Energy Agency, Russia has been benefitting from its oil production and export for decades. However, this is about to change in the future since the Russian oil industry is about to see its production peak, which means it will inevitably start going down further down the road.

Publication date: 16 April 05:31 AM

US-China Trade War Drops Oil Prices

The trade war between the United States and China is underway. Yet, it has already led to some consequences. For example, international experts say that this war has been the reason for the current weakness of the global market of cryptocurrencies. At the same times, Finanz experts claim that this trade war has dropped oil prices.

Publication date: 06 April 01:09 PM

USA Almost Doubles Oil Export in 2017

In 2017, the United States’ oil export reached 1,1 million barrels on average, which is almost twice as much as exported in 2016. These figures are confirmed by the EIA.

Publication date: 30 March 12:49 AM

OPEC+ Conditions May Get Tougher

The participants of the OPEC+ deal have recently discussed the efficiency of the deal. Having discussed the results, they decided to change a range of criteria. To do so, they may well have to extend the OPEC+ deal, Bloomberg reports.

Publication date: 28 March 08:46 AM

Что будет с золотом в марте?

What should we expect in the global market of gold in March? Some experts decided to share their forecast.

Publication date: 21 March 03:38 AM