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Tuesday, 22 September 18:14 (GMT -05:00)

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Pakistan: What Trouble will the Region be Exposed to after US Troops are Withdrawn from Afghanistan?


The decision to withdraw American troops from Afghanistan during July 2011 through 2014 has been signed by Barack Obama: to the joy of its numerous foes and open enemies, the USA will suffer another, large-scale defeat after Iraq and struggle against international terrorism advertised everywhere 10 years ago. In euphoria of another slap on Washington's face, the main question remains overlooked: what will happen to Afghanistan and neighboring Pakistan after US and NATO troops are withdrawn from the region? Peace, happiness... or new, even worse trouble for the region and the world.


Pakistan is a major Islamic country with nuclear weapons which might individually face extreme Islamists from Taliban who are not simply on the Pakistan's threshold despite counteraction of NATO and Pakistani troops - they are inside the country waiting for their big day. Increasingly more frequent encounters between the Pakistani army and fundamentalists indicate this better than any most qualified forecasts.


The future does not inspire optimism, either. The US President Barack Obama has already approved the schedule for a gradual removal of American troops from Afghanistan. However, no war finished with the same borders as it was starting. Any military operations follow a simple law laid out by great Mao Zedong himself: "The enemy retreats, we advance, and vice versa". There is no third option. Nobody finishes a war conniving at their enemy's actions. Especially, Talibs. It is absolutely clear they will follow US ARMY in the same direction it chooses for its retreat.


How will the US armed forces retreat from Afghanistan?


There are two ways for removing American forces from Afghanistan:
if the Americans choose to withdraw their forces through Middle Asia, mojahedins will head for the north like it already happened in early 1990s after the fall of Najibullah regime in Afghanistan. This set independent Tajikistan ablaze;
if the coalition's soldiers retreat to the south, the 'bad boys' from Taliban should be expected in Pakistan. This option looks much more likely than the first one.


Let's look at the 2nd option: trained by Americans and their allies, the new Afghan armed forces and police are unlikely to last longer than law enforcers of Najibullah who were 'trained and prepared' with equal persistence for 10 years. So, the fall of the pro-western regime of Hamid Karzay is only a matter of time after NATO troops are withdrawn from the country.


Why is it Pakistan that should be afraid of Talibs?


According to experts of the Land Association of Arab countries within the Masterforex-V Trading Academy, Islamabad's risk of suffering a complete defeat from Talibs, in the wake of Afghanistan, is very high because:
1. Taliban practically controls Balochistan, a vast province in the territory of Pakistan bordering on mutinous Afghanistan.
2. Numerous and populous Pashto tribes live on both sides of the Afghan-Pakistan border and are a very influential force both in Afghanistan and Pakistan. They are fully on the side of Talibs.
3. It is Pakistan which is home to the Taliban movement. Many leaders of the movement, commanders and common mojahedins come from this country. Thus, they want to make war (export of a revolution) and can make war (awareness of Pakistani realities).
4. Very many Pakistani servicemen and secret service officers were involved in training of future mojahedins in due time. They did it for the sake of the idea rather than money, especially in 1979-1989, during their joint struggle against the USSR. Many remain genuinely sympathetic to Islamists, especially after the American invasion of Afghanistan. So, there is a risk that part of Pakistani forces will join Taliban fighters.
5. In Pakistan Talibs have an organization structure divided into a number of committees. Islamists must have serious intentions to settle down in lay Pakistan for a long time.
6. Talibs in Pakistan have their military committee, financial committee, media committee.
7. Balochistan is host of meetings of the Quetta Shura, the main council of spiritual and military leaders that guide the entire movement. This is where Taliban's elusive leader, mullah Mohammed Omar and his deputies live.


Even today's situation in Pakistan can hardly be described as peaceful


The war that western media don't feel like speaking about has been under way for a long time in the territory of Afghanistan and Pakistan. This isn't sporadic terrorist attacks - it's a real war: with use of weapons and equipment, advances, organized defense, attacks and counterstrikes. So:
in early 2009 Talibs made a large-scale advance that Pakistani governmental forces managed to stop only 100 km. away from the country's capital;
Talibs left the district of occupation of Pashto tribes in the north east long ago and invaded the densely populated center of Pakistan;
their activities are no longer limited to rural areas - now they spread to cities as well;
Pakistani authorities even wanted to started peaceful negotiations with Talibs but Americans forbade this allegedly because mojahedins have their own vision of the country's future which runs counter to the idea of Pakistani sovereignty. Still, the idea of creating the single caliphate lives on and prevails;
Americans' behavior and, especially, airstrikes on Talibs' bases in the territory of Pakistan draw extreme indignation from many citizens of the country who involuntarily start sympathizing with Islamists.


Why is the US flirting with Moscow and the republics of Middle Asia?

Quite obviously, Pakistan is already at war. This country is no longer in the rear. This is why Washington was forced to get closer to Moscow and Middle-Asian leaders as it had to find channels for sending supplies to its own group in Afghanistan from the north. However, this only aggravates the crisis situation. While Americans send supplies to their soldiers from the territory of Turkmenistan, Talibs are confidently heading for Islamabad with its nuclear button. When leaving Afghanistan, US troops will be crossing Pakistan to the waters of the Indian Ocean which will cheer up mojahedins more. As Robert Gates, US Defense Minister, told his President: "We can withdraw troops from there; then the domino will fall apart, and this part of the world will be taken by Taliban and al Qaeda. Nobody truly understands what is going on there".


US diplomatic negotiations with Taliban. As reported by New Yorker, the Administration of US President B. Obama has entered 'direct, clandestine negotiations with Afghan leadership of Taliban'. What about an unwritten taboo of Americans on negotiating and making deals with terrorists? Hillary Clinton, the US Secretary of the State, immediately responded to the journalists' sensation by emphasizing that the main condition for Taliban is the requirement to break up with al Qaeda and make peace with the government of Afghanistan. In this way the US is trying to remove Taliban from the category of 'a terrorist movement'.


But the whole problem is that the US lost strategic initiative, and Barack Obama already approved his plan for withdrawal of troops... the entire world is waiting to see what path US troops will take and be followed by Taliban fighters... and what happens next. For example, if Talibs go north to the Republics of Middle Asia being nicely armed, solidly financed, well trained and weathered in their years of struggle with much more powerful and stronger enemies than armed forces of Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan.


Market Leader's Editor Office and Masterforex-V Academy suggest a survey for the situation to be assessed in a more unbiased manner: In your opinion, what will happen after Americans leave Afghanistan?
• Pakistan and Afghanistan will be taken over by Talibs who will organize a powerful enclave of terrorism and drug dealing with prevalence of nuclear weapons in a vast region;
• Nothing will change, Talibs will remain where they are no, Pakistan will withstand and maintain lay order;
• Americans won't leave at all.


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